What’s Happening:
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, Joe Biden and Donald Trump would be the names atop the ticket for the Democrats and Republicans, respectively. Campaigning would be fierce with a likely no-holds-barred mentality from both camps.
The reality is that while Biden and Trump are leading moving toward the election neither is a lock for the party ticket. Biden is trailing Trump in many national polls and Democrats are grumbling about possible replacements. Trump is leaps and bounds ahead of GOP contenders, but he faces multiple court trails in the next few months.
And then there is the spoiler that neither party wants to talk about. He’s now an outsider who is making waves among registered voters, and new polls show he has gained momentum in a three-way race. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling higher enough to change the course of the election one year away from voting day.
From the Daily Caller:
Kennedy garnered 22% in a three-way matchup, with Biden and Trump receiving 39% and 36% support respectively among registered voters nationwide, according to a Quinnipiac University survey.
It that poll holds true until the election, Trump will be hurt more by Kennedy than Biden. Kennedy, a Democrat running as a third-party candidate, is stealing independent voters from the leading candidates. The poll showed Kennedy with the largest tally of independent voters with 36% in favor, followed by Trump with 31% and Biden with 30%.
Young voters, who are a key electorate in upcoming elections, are leaning into the charisma and ideals promoted by Kennedy. He received 38% support from those aged 18 to 34, followed by Biden with 32% and Trump with 27%.
All these voter surges by Kennedy are in key demographics where Biden and Trump must at least hold the line if not make gains against their opponents. The poll also found that Kennedy’s candidacy helps Biden more than it does Trump in the general election.
This poll suggests that Biden is beating Trump 47% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup. Biden’s margin of victory grows to 3 points when Kennedy is included in the fray, according to the survey.
This election is still too far away to bankroll results on any one poll. An early October survey from Reuters/Ipsos showed Kennedy receiving 14% support in a three-way matchup. But it also showed Biden and Trump tied head-to-head with Trump topping Biden by 2 points with Kennedy calculated into the mix.
Kennedy’s message seems to be resonating with segments of voters after he announced on Oct. 9 that he was leaving the Democratic Party. He has publicly insisted that Americans must step away from both major political parties, corporations, “Big Pharma,” “Big Tech” and more entities.
If Kennedy’s numbers continue to improve, it could be a drawn-out campaign for the major candidates. It remains to be seen if Kennedy’s message of independence will carry him through to next November.
Key Takeaways:
- Poll shows unexpected surge from independent presidential candidate.
- Biden and Trump are put on notice with shift from independent voters.
- Message of independence is hitting home among young voters nationwide.
Source: Daily Caller
