In what has become a familiar pattern from Democratic leadership, another bold claim has collided head-on with statistical reality. This time, it’s former President Joe Biden’s assertion that he could have won reelection had he stayed in the race. The president’s claim isn’t just being challenged by conservative analysts. Indeed, it’s also being thoroughly dismantled by an unexpected source.
The Democratic establishment has long struggled with accepting electoral realities. From Hillary Clinton’s years of election denialism to Stacey Abrams’ refusal to concede in Georgia, this is nothing new for the left. Now, Biden has joined this chorus of denial with what one prominent analyst calls an assertion that is “flat-out bonkers.”
The Claim Vs. Reality
CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten – hardly a conservative partisan – delivered a devastating blow to Biden’s claims of electoral viability.
“Based on the polling data, I categorize Biden’s statement that he could have beaten Trump as ‘flat out bonkers,'” Enten declared. He then backed his assessment with cold, hard numbers that paint a stark picture of Democratic delusion.
Biden’s claim came during a USA Today interview. In it, he stated, “It’s presumptuous to say that, but I think yes” when asked if he could have won reelection. Biden added that he based this view on polling that he had reviewed. Unfortunately for him, according to Enten’s analysis, this polling simply doesn’t exist.
The reality? Biden never led Trump in polling throughout 2024 before dropping out. Not for a single day. In fact, the numbers tell an even more devastating story: Trump held commanding leads in every crucial battleground state – Michigan (+4.2), Pennsylvania (+5.1), and Wisconsin (+3.8) – margins that would have demolished the Democrats’ vaunted “blue wall.”
Sound familiar to anyone watching Democratic leadership lately?
“The bottom line is this,” Enten emphasized, “Joe Biden was behind, he had always been behind, and he most likely would have stayed behind.”
Based on the polling data, I categorize Biden's statement that he could have beaten Trump as "flat out bonkers."
Biden was well behind Trump when he dropped out. Biden never led in all of 2024. And no incumbent president who was anywhere near as unpopular as Biden has ever won. pic.twitter.com/lGk9h8pygU
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) January 8, 2025
The Bigger Picture
If you’re sensing a pattern here, you’re not alone. The timing of Biden’s reality-defying claim is particularly striking, coming as Democratic governance faces multiple crises. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom’s mismanagement of forest policies has contributed to catastrophic wildfires ravaging Los Angeles. Meanwhile, the successful resolution of a potentially devastating port strike was credited to President-elect Trump’s intervention, not the Biden administration’s efforts.
These real-world consequences of Democratic leadership failures mirror the electoral rejection reflected in the polling data. The American people weren’t just theoretically opposed to another Biden term – they were witnessing the tangible results of progressive policies in their daily lives.
Even in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Northern Virginia, Biden’s support had collapsed dramatically by mid-2024, with his approval rating plummeting to an unprecedented negative 19 points. This development, though overshadowed by his eventual withdrawal, represented a seismic shift in American political alignment that many Democratic leaders still refuse to acknowledge.
The numbers paint a clear electoral picture: Trump was positioned to secure approximately 325 electoral votes to Biden’s 213. This represents not just a victory, but a decisive mandate for conservative governance. This wasn’t merely a rejection of Biden personally. Instead, it was a referendum on the entire Democratic Party and their woke agenda.
As America prepares for its next chapter under new leadership, Biden’s claims serve as a reminder of why voters ultimately chose a different direction. The disconnect between Democratic leadership’s self-perception and reality has never been more stark – or more thoroughly documented by objective analysis.
In the end, the American people’s verdict wasn’t just about polling numbers or political predictions. It was also about returning to the fundamental principles of strong leadership, fiscal responsibility, and practical governance that have historically made America prosper.
Key Takeaways:
- Biden’s claim of potential victory contradicted by every available poll and metric.
- CNN analyst confirms Trump led by significant margins in all battleground states.
- No president with Biden’s negative approval ratings has ever won reelection.
- Democratic leadership continues pattern of denying electoral reality despite clear data.
